Offchain: Is "Uptober" back on the cards?

September’s gloom has started to lift. Weaker US data has cooled fears of another rate hike, Wall Street is warming up again, and Washington’s regulators are pressing on without Congress.

Could “Uptober” be back on the cards?

Here are the top stories you need to know:

Headlines of the week

• Bitcoin climbed back above $86,000, jumping from roughly $86,450 to nearly $87,230 within minutes of Friday’s US jobs report, before opening Monday at $86,513.
• US employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, against expectations of 90,000, with unemployment rising to 4.2%. Earlier in the week, headline PCE inflation came in at 3.4% year-over-year, with core PCE at 3.0%, below forecasts.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $241.08m in net inflows between 28th September and 2nd October, roughly 90% less than the week before, but enough for a third consecutive positive week. Ethereum funds went the other way, with around $118m in outflows.
• Strategy is buying Bitcoin again, adding 334 BTC for about $28.7m at an average of $85,839, lifting its holdings to 848,000 BTC, while still repurchasing STRC shares.
• Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade was set to hit the Sepolia testnet on 6th October, with a Hoodi test tentatively pencilled in for 27th October, ahead of a Q4 mainnet target.

Rate-hike fears cool off

Just three weeks ago, the Fed raised rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase since 2023. Since then, the data has softened considerably. A cooler PCE print was followed by a jobs report that badly missed expectations, with July revised to an outright loss of 10,000 jobs and wage growth slowing to 3.0%.

The result? As of September 28th, CME FedWatch showed a 72.5% chance of an October hike. After the PCE data, that dropped to 34.9%, and Friday’s jobs miss pushed it lower still.

Bad news for the economy has turned into good news for crypto, at least for now. With the September Fed minutes due on October 7th and September CPI on October 14th, the next few weeks will decide whether the Fed’s tightening was a one-off or the start of something bigger.

Washington finds a workaround

Last time, we covered the industry’s shift from “Congress will save us” to “maybe we didn’t need them anyway”. This week, the SEC backed that idea up. On October 1st, the SEC voted to propose a new crypto custody rule for investment advisers and regulated funds.

Under the proposal, state-chartered trust companies could hold crypto for adviser clients and funds, and advisers could hold client crypto themselves in certain cases. It’s a complete U-turn from the Gensler era, when critics said proposed custody changes would have boxed advisers out of crypto.

Why does this matter? Financial advisers manage enormous pools of money, and unclear custody rules have kept many of them on the sidelines. Clearer rules could open the door to a slower, steadier stream of institutional money, CLARITY Act or not.

Wall Street changes its tune

Citigroup has had a change of heart. The industry giant raised its 12-month Bitcoin target from $82,000 to $113,000, and its Ethereum target from $2,240 to $3,028. The reason cited is stronger market activity, a supportive macro backdrop and the return of ETF inflows.

It’s worth taking with a pinch of salt, though. Citi had cut its previous Bitcoin call from $143,000 to $112,000, then again to $82,000 in July, so its forecasts have swung wildly this year. Even if it proves right, the new target sits about 10% below Bitcoin’s October 2025 record. The bank expects inflows to arrive at a “slower but stickier” pace as advisers and brokerages add Bitcoin gradually, which fits neatly with the SEC’s custody push.

Final takeaway: The rate-hike scare is easing, regulators are getting on with it without Congress, and the big banks are turning bullish again.

Caleb for CoinJar

CoinJar on TradingView - Bitcoin Weekly Structure Shift: EMA Retest in Focus

Bitcoin’s weekly timeframe is showing a notable shift in market structure, with price action breaking the sequence of lower highs and lower lows that had developed over the past year. Price has also reclaimed the EMA ribbon on a closing basis, with multiple weekly candles holding above it, providing some evidence that the prior structure may be changing.

The next key development is how price reacts to the EMA ribbon on a potential pullback. If the ribbon holds as support, it could allow a higher low to form and increase the probability of a rotational move toward the next resistance around $114,457.

However, the structure is not confirmed indefinitely. A sustained loss of the EMA ribbon would weaken the current setup and raise the possibility that the recent breakout becomes a bull trap, potentially opening the door to a deeper correction. In that scenario, the next major weekly support to monitor sits around $62,888, near the base of the engulfing candle.

For now, the EMA ribbon and $114,457 resistance remain key areas to watch, with price reaction around the ribbon likely to provide further clues about the next directional move.

Aziz for CoinJar

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