Offchain: Bitcoin dips below $80K as hot inflation revives hike fears

Inflation is back in the headlines, and not in a good way. September’s hotter-than-expected CPI print sent Bitcoin briefly below $80,000 and wiped out more than $900m in leveraged positions along the way.

Meanwhile, Wall Street is drawing new lines around crypto, from MSCI’s index rules to a wave of big companies saying no to tokenised shares.

Here are the top stories you need to know:

Headlines of the week

• Bitcoin dipped below $80,000 for the first time this month, hitting an intraday low of $79,694 on 15th October before recovering to around $82,600 by Sunday, down roughly 1.4% on the week.
• US inflation rose to 3.7% in September, above the 3.6% forecast, with core prices up 0.3% on the month against expectations of 0.2%.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted around $228m in net outflows between 12th and 16th October, a second straight negative week, with BlackRock’s IBIT (‑$165m) leading redemptions. Ethereum ETFs lost a further $320.1m.
• GTA 6 accidentally made someone very rich, after a “DacityCoin” logo flashed up in the trailer and a Solana memecoin of the same name pumped 2,900% in an hour. It’s since crashed more than 50%, apt for the ‘Grand Theft Auto’ title.

Inflation runs hot

Last week, we said September’s CPI print would go a long way to deciding the Fed’s next move. It didn’t bring good news. Headline inflation rose to 3.7%, its highest since May and above the 3.6% forecast, while core inflation climbed from 2.4% to 2.6%. Energy did a lot of the damage, rising 5.2% in a single month.

Crypto took it on the chin. Bitcoin slipped below $82,000 on the day of the release, then briefly fell to $79,694 in the early hours of 15th October. More than $929m of leveraged positions were liquidated in 24 hours, around $777m of them longs.

Then came a reprieve. Speaking at the IMF on 16th October, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said he doesn’t “prejudge meetings”, and traders read that as a sign October is off the table. The odds of a hike at next week’s meeting fell from 27% to 15%, according to CME FedWatch, and Bitcoin climbed back towards $82,000.

Index trouble for Bitcoin treasuries

Strategy has spent years turning itself into a Bitcoin proxy for stock market investors. Now one of the world’s biggest index providers is questioning whether it belongs. On 15th October, MSCI finalised new rules that screen out “non-operating” companies, those that work mainly as investment holdings rather than operating businesses.

Strategy and Japan’s Metaplanet are both in the firing line, and MSCI will publish its list of affected companies on 11th November. If either is removed, passive funds that track MSCI indexes may have to sell their shares once the changes take effect after the 30th November close.

There is a cushion, though. Current index members are only removed if they fail MSCI’s tests in each of their two most recent annual filing periods. Strategy has previously called the rules “discriminatory” against digital asset treasuries, and argued they would harm MSCI’s reputation as a neutral index provider.

Wall Street says “no thanks” to tokenisation

Last week, Securitize brought tokenised Apple and Nvidia shares onchain. This week, some of America’s biggest companies made it clear they’d rather sit this one out. OKXICE, a joint venture between crypto exchange OKX and NYSE owner Intercontinental Exchange, plans to offer round-the-clock trading in tokenised versions of 63 US-listed stocks under the SEC’s new Innovation Exemption.

Nine companies have objected to their shares being included, among them Broadcom, Verizon, UnitedHealth and CoreWeave. Nasdaq also said it would opt out of having its own shares tokenised, telling the Wall Street Journal it doesn’t want its stock on a venue that doesn’t show the best prices in real time.

Why does it matter? Tokenised stocks need buy-in from the companies behind them. Analysts at TD Securities found little interest outside a small group of crypto-adjacent firms, and warned that the framework relies on temporary relief that a future SEC could reverse.

Final takeaway: Inflation is still calling the shots, Strategy’s index status is under threat, and big companies aren’t rushing to put their shares onchain.

Caleb for CoinJar

Bitcoin Holds Channel Support as $86,500 Resistance Comes Into Focus

Bitcoin continues to trade within a defined trading channel, with both support and resistance levels playing an important role in shaping price action. So far, the channel structure remains intact, as buyers have managed to defend the lower boundary and maintain the broader range.

A key development is Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the $75,000 higher-timeframe support level. This area remains an important reference point for the current market structure, with price showing resilience despite previous selling pressure. As long as this support holds, the possibility of a recovery toward higher resistance levels remains in play.

Attention is now turning toward the $86,500 resistance zone. A decisive break above this level could provide an opportunity for further upside, potentially bringing the upper boundary of the trading channel into focus. However, confirmation would be important, as a brief move above resistance without sustained buying pressure could result in a failed breakout.

On the other hand, rejection at $86,500 may lead to renewed consolidation or a pullback toward lower support levels. A loss of the $75,000 region would weaken the current outlook and raise the possibility of a deeper correction.

For now, Bitcoin remains within its broader channel, with the reaction around $86,500 likely to provide further insight into the next directional move.

Aziz for CoinJar

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